2009年12月17日

No regrets

by,Copenhagen needs a strong lead negotiator
/ A whole solutionClever tactics


The politial decisions made for the Kyouto protocol had their shortcomings.

We for the Kyouto protocol had their shortcomings.

We opted to put targets an a range of gases, knowing that we had very different degrees of certainty on the estimation of emissions for each of them.

Selecting 1990 as the base year for emissions comparisons was arbitrary, if politically convenient, as was selecting a 100-year horizon.

The taeget of a 5% emissions reduction was too modest, but it was the only one politically possible.

Despite this, the Kyouto Protocol has had an undeniably positive impact in international policy : climate change is now at the centre of the international scene, and Raul Estrada-oyuera have no regrets about the negotiation.


Some have suggested that large deals always resultin unsatisfactory comoromise, and that smaller agreements are better alternatives.

The administration of former US President George W. Bush, for one, prompted meetings among some 15-20 governments to discuss their own Climate initiatves.

These talks continue, but with no results.

Differences between lage world economies remain the same even in small meetings.

Plus, only large meetings can properly capture the needs of the developing world.


(… to be continue…)


### DataBace ###
nature Vol.461 1019-1162 Issue no.7267 22 Octover 2009
Editorials p.1027 :"Climate of compromise"
Destination Copenhagen :「コペンハーゲン会議の行方
News p.1034 / Time running out for climate for climate talks
News Feature p.1042 / When the Ice melts
News Feature p.1048 / Counting carbon in the Amazon
Opinion p.1054 / India pushes for common responsibility ; Technological partnerships
Opinion p.1055 / China expects leadership from rich nations
Opinion p.1056 / Copenhagen needs a strong lead negotiator
; A whole solutionClever tactics



Who will be Copenhagen Merkel or Ripert?

Raul Estrada-oyuera hope this will be estabished before Dicember.


The main task for Copenhagen is shared by two groups.

The working group on long-term coopertive action must propose a "comprehensive process to enable the full,effective and sustained implemantation of the Convention," with the intention of including commitments from the United States and the 'mega' developing countries ― China, India, Brazil, Mexico and North Korea ― that do not have quanrified commitmenys in the Kyoto Protocol.

in addition, the working group on further commitments for "Annex I" countries under the Kyoto Protocol must propose targets for beyond 2012 for developed nations who had caps for their emissions in the 2008-12 commitment period.


This March ambasssador Michael Zammit Cutajar of Malta, fomer executive-secretary of the UNFCC, took tha chair of the longterm co-operative action group.

Cutajar has the necessary caoabilities and the Knowledge to lead this group.

He id nation is a member of the European Union but it is in many aspects a developing country, giving him respect from many quarters.

In Junne, he producted an excellent draft negotiating text of fewer than 60 pages based on proposals submitted by various governments.

The document has not met with much success, however : government representatives have added pragraphs tha pish the text up to 200 pages.


At the same taime, ambassador John Ashe, of Antigua and Barbuda, took the chair of the further commitments working group.

He, too, has produced a draft negotiation document and has considerable experience as a chairman, but he to has been confronted with a lack of cooperation by the parties.

Hedegaard has a difficult task at Copenhagen.

It might be advisable not to end the conference in December at all, but rather, as we did with the 6th conference at The Hague, reconvene it six months later.

Such a delay is not the best option, but may be the only way to reach a meaningful agreement.

Raul Estrada-oyuera spent 42 years as a diplo,at for Argentina. he has now ewtired in Buenos Aires. 

posted by 0≠素子(由理政宗) at 18:26| Road to Copenhagen | このブログの読者になる | 更新情報をチェックする
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